Georgetown lost to St. Johns 64-59.
You were my sleeper pick Georgetown. But your tournament play was just as disappointing as the rest of your season.
FAIL.
On another note, ACC Player of the Year Ty Lawson is questionable for the ACC tourney with a swollen big toe. His condition has serious implications for the Tar Heels in the ACC tourney, but they are looking towards a bigger goal. The Heels need to make sure Lawson is 100% ready to go for the NCAA Tournament (or at least Percy Harvin 90%). If that means that they don't win the ACC tourney, so be it. The committee will understand if the Heels don't win their tourney without Lawson, and will still most likely award UNC with a 1 seed. Freshman Larry Drew II will most likely start in Lawson's place. Drew II is averaging 1.5 pts and 2 assists in 9.7 minutes of play. Senior Bobby Frasor will also see increased minutes in the event of Lawson's absence. Frasor is averaging 2.6 pts and 1.5 assists in 15.9 minutes. The two will have big shoes to fill as Lawson averages 15.9 pts and 6.5 assists while leading one of the most explosive offenses in the country. The ACC tourney starts Thursday at noon, but the Heels have a bye and won't play till Friday against the winner of the VT/Miami game.
Lawson's injury is straight up huge, not only for the Heels, but for the winner of the VT/Miami game. VT and Miami are both very much on the bubble. Miami is 18-11(7-9) while VT is 17-13 (7-9). If the winner of this game then goes on to defeat the Heels, then this winner would have a very legitimate shot at making the NCAA Tournament. Currently, Tech and Miami are hoping and praying that Lawson rides the pine in Atlanta.
Finally, a big congratulations for my man Sylven Landesberg as he took home sole possession of the ACC's Rookie of the Year Award. Sylven received 55 of the 76 votes for the award, while Wake's Al-Farouq Aminu received 20 votes. There was some speculation that the 2 would share the award, but Sylven deservedly gets the award outright. Sylven averaged 16.8 points per game despite being the focus of opposing defenses. He almost always had to create his own shot as the Hoos struggled with their point guard play all year. Well done Sylven!
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Conference Tourney Time
The Big East
The Big East Tourney kicked off today at Madison Square Garden. Cincinnati started things off by completing their late season collapse and losing to DePaul 67-57. Let's not forget that DePaul was 0-16 in regular season conference play. The Bearcats had a very good shot at making the NCAA tournament but ultimately lost 6 of their final 7 games. Some of these games were seen as easy wins for Cincy. Instead, they defied the odds and lost at South Florida and at home to Seton Hall. Tragic.
DePaul now advances to face a Providence team that has everything to play for. Providence is the face of NCAA tournament bubble teams. They are 18-12 (10-8) and 6-6 in their last 12 games. The Friars knocked off #1 Pitt during that stretch and also defeated Syracuse. But Providence does have scars on their resume. They lost to Northeastern and Baylor during out of conference play, and have recently been blown out by the likes of UConn, WVU, Louisville, Notre Dame, and Nova (all NCAA tournament caliber teams). So what does Providence have to do to make the field of 65? For starters, they absolutely must beat DePaul (preferably by a large margin). Winning this game will advance them to a quarterfinal match-up with #1 seed Louisville. If the Friars pray (yes, that is supposed to be PRAY) hard enough and beat the Cardinals, then everyone from Joe Lunardi to Digger Phelps will agree that they deserve a spot in the dance. However, I feel that as long as they play Louisville close, they will receive serious consideration from the committee and get one of the last bids. But if they lose by more than 10 in an uninspired effort, look for them in the NIT.
Look for the Hoyas to make some noise in the Big East Tournament. They face a very beatable St. Johns team in the first round, and will most likely advance to play against a struggling Marquette team. Marquette has lost 4 straight since losing Dominic James for the season. Those 4 games were against UConn, Louisville, Pitt, and 'Cuse, but the Golden Eagles have been a completely different team without James. Marquette has made a Duke-like 24-79 three point attempts during their final 3 games, a lowly 30%. Yes, they still have Jerel McNeal, who has been on a roll all season (20.1 ppg), but I don't see the Eagles winning a game in either the Big East or NCAA tournament. Back to the Hoyas. Assuming they win these 2 games, the Hoyas would then face Nova in the quarterfinals. In their only meeting of the season, Georgetown won at Nova by a final count of 56-54. Scottie Reynolds did have a terrible shooting night and only finished with 12 points for the Cats, but the fact of the matter is, Georgetown won at Nova. Look for the Hoyas to make it to the semi-finals against Louisville, but fall just 2 games shy of earning the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.
So who wins the Big East Tournament? This is a tough one because the Big East boasts 3 of the best teams in the country with Louisville, Pitt, and UConn. I anticipate Louisville beating Georgetown to advance to the finals against the winner of the Pitt vs. UConn semi-final. Pitt will defeat UConn for the 3rd time this year and then knock off Louisville for the crown. Pitt won't stop there, because they're going to win the whole thing. That's right. You heard it here first. The Pitt Panthers are going to win the NCAA Tournament. Sam Young, Levance Fields, DeJuan Blair, they are unstoppable. Pitt is awesome, as is this time of year.
Go watch some hoops.
The Big East Tourney kicked off today at Madison Square Garden. Cincinnati started things off by completing their late season collapse and losing to DePaul 67-57. Let's not forget that DePaul was 0-16 in regular season conference play. The Bearcats had a very good shot at making the NCAA tournament but ultimately lost 6 of their final 7 games. Some of these games were seen as easy wins for Cincy. Instead, they defied the odds and lost at South Florida and at home to Seton Hall. Tragic.
DePaul now advances to face a Providence team that has everything to play for. Providence is the face of NCAA tournament bubble teams. They are 18-12 (10-8) and 6-6 in their last 12 games. The Friars knocked off #1 Pitt during that stretch and also defeated Syracuse. But Providence does have scars on their resume. They lost to Northeastern and Baylor during out of conference play, and have recently been blown out by the likes of UConn, WVU, Louisville, Notre Dame, and Nova (all NCAA tournament caliber teams). So what does Providence have to do to make the field of 65? For starters, they absolutely must beat DePaul (preferably by a large margin). Winning this game will advance them to a quarterfinal match-up with #1 seed Louisville. If the Friars pray (yes, that is supposed to be PRAY) hard enough and beat the Cardinals, then everyone from Joe Lunardi to Digger Phelps will agree that they deserve a spot in the dance. However, I feel that as long as they play Louisville close, they will receive serious consideration from the committee and get one of the last bids. But if they lose by more than 10 in an uninspired effort, look for them in the NIT.
Look for the Hoyas to make some noise in the Big East Tournament. They face a very beatable St. Johns team in the first round, and will most likely advance to play against a struggling Marquette team. Marquette has lost 4 straight since losing Dominic James for the season. Those 4 games were against UConn, Louisville, Pitt, and 'Cuse, but the Golden Eagles have been a completely different team without James. Marquette has made a Duke-like 24-79 three point attempts during their final 3 games, a lowly 30%. Yes, they still have Jerel McNeal, who has been on a roll all season (20.1 ppg), but I don't see the Eagles winning a game in either the Big East or NCAA tournament. Back to the Hoyas. Assuming they win these 2 games, the Hoyas would then face Nova in the quarterfinals. In their only meeting of the season, Georgetown won at Nova by a final count of 56-54. Scottie Reynolds did have a terrible shooting night and only finished with 12 points for the Cats, but the fact of the matter is, Georgetown won at Nova. Look for the Hoyas to make it to the semi-finals against Louisville, but fall just 2 games shy of earning the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.
So who wins the Big East Tournament? This is a tough one because the Big East boasts 3 of the best teams in the country with Louisville, Pitt, and UConn. I anticipate Louisville beating Georgetown to advance to the finals against the winner of the Pitt vs. UConn semi-final. Pitt will defeat UConn for the 3rd time this year and then knock off Louisville for the crown. Pitt won't stop there, because they're going to win the whole thing. That's right. You heard it here first. The Pitt Panthers are going to win the NCAA Tournament. Sam Young, Levance Fields, DeJuan Blair, they are unstoppable. Pitt is awesome, as is this time of year.
Go watch some hoops.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
More Tourney Projections
State of the ACC Bubble Teams
Boston College – 20-10 (8-7)
The Eagles have dropped from ‘most likely’ to ‘on the bubble’ after their 5 point loss at NC State last night. However, as long as they win their regular season finale at home against GT, they should be a lock for a spot in the tournament. If they lose at home to GT, then they truly will be on the bubble and must turn some heads in the ACC tourney.
Verdict – IN
They will ramblin’ wreck GT at home to finish 21-10 (9-7) and secure a spot in the field of 65.
Tech – 17-12 (7-8)
Tech lost a close one to UNC last night and risk once again missing the NCAA tournament by the slimmest of margins. Now they have to conclude the regular season with a must win at Florida State. Sadly for the Hokies, FSU is really good and have only suffered 3 home losses this year. You might be thinking, “well, only 3 home losses isn’t that impressive”. Yea, well they are when they come from the likes of Pitt, Duke, and UNC. Malcolm Delaney has struggled of late and must step up his game if he wants to take the Hokies to bigger and better things than the NIT.
Verdict - OUT
Tech will lose this game and once again fall short of the glory of the NCAA tournament. Jeff Allen will struggle against Florida State’s big men and Uncle Fester will yet again call everyone certifiably insane. After falling to FSU, Tech will have lost 6 of their last 7 games and fall to 17-13 (7-9). Inexcusable numbers for a team with NCAA aspirations. You can’t spell Virginia Tech without the N, the I, and the T.
Maryland – 18-11 (7-8)
Maryland lost to Wake to fall to 18-11 (7-8) and concludes the regular season at helpless Virginia. They should have no problem in beating the Cavaliers as the Hoos have found themselves helpless on the offensive side of the ball.
Verdict – IN
Maryland will improve to 19-11 (8-8) after struggling against the Hoos but still pulling out the W.
Miami – 17-11 (6-9)
Miami choked big time at GT last night. For the Canes, a 10 point loss to the worst team in the ACC this late in the season is the perfect example of a bubble buster. Miami is now most desperate and must play a hot NC State squad.
Verdict – OUT
They may beat the Wolfpack, and they may lose to the Wolfpack. Either way, it doesn’t matter, because you can’t lose to the ACC’s last place team this late in the season and expect to get a bid. Best case scenario is they finish 18-11 (7-9). They fall just short of the field of 65.
I have changed my prediction from 8 ACC teams, to 7 ACC teams. I originally had Tech and Miami in, now I just have Maryland in. Of course, Tech and Miami could make a run in the ACC tournament, but they would have to win 2 games to make the NCAA's. The 2nd win in the ACC tourney is incredibly difficult when you must face a top 4 team who is coming off a bye. They had their chances.
Big East Bubble Teams
Cincy - 18-12 (8-9)
Seriously? Did ya'll seriously lose to South Florida? That'll kill ya.
Verdict - OUT
Losing to bad teams hurts. Ask Miami.
Providence - 18-11 (10-7)
They play at Villanova tonight in a huge game for the Friars. Win this game, and they are in, no questions asked. However, with the Bearcats choking down the stretch, they could still get into the tourney despite a loss tonight.
Verdict - IN
They will lose to Nova and fall to 18-12 (10-8) but still make the NCAA tourney after winning 1 or 2 in the Big East tourney.
Notre Dame - 16-13 (7-10)
They are now even more hopeless than the last time we visited with the Irish. Oh well, there's always football...oh yea, nevermind
Georgetown - 15-13 (6-11)
CBI?
The Big East still gets 8 teams, just swap Providence in for Cincy (who apparently wants to play in the NIT).
Marquette really misses Dominic James after losing to Pitt by 15. Marquette shoots a lot of 3's, just like Duke, and will be shown the exit door in the NCAA's very quickly, just like Duke.
TRAVIS MCKIE
UVA recruit Travis McKie with a sweet put back in the Central Region basketball finals.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpBqmZaZZHA
Enjoy.
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
ACC Bubble Teams
For Sure In:
UNC - 25-3 (11-3)
Duke - 24-5 (10-4)
Wake - 22-5 (9-5)
FSU - 22-7 (9-5)
Clemson - 22-6 (8-6)
Most Likely:
BC - 20-9 (8-6) - They are 7-5 over their last 12 games with huge wins over Duke and Florida State. They also close out the season with a fairly easy two games against NC St and GT. The only reason I don't have them as for sure in, is that their out of conference play was not impressive and consisted of losses to Saint Louis and Harvard. However, they have been playing very well of late and should finish 22-9 (10-6).
Verdict: IN
If they finish as projected, they should have zero trouble getting in regardless of ACC Tournament play. Tyrese Rice is a baller and should guarantee at least one tourney win, locking them a spot in the dance.
Bubble Teams:
Maryland - 18-10 (7-7) - They are 6-6 in their last 12 games with a big time win over the Tarheels. However they must conclude the regular season with a home game against Wake (tonight at 9) and at Virginia. I'm feeling the Terps losing their final 2 games and falling to 18-12 (7-9). This would mean that they would have to do some serious work in the ACC tourney to make it in the field of 65, I'm talking make it to the finals. They did beat Michigan State during out of conference play, but also lost to Georgetown, Gonzaga, and MORGAN STATE!
Verdict: OUT
This team isn't very good and really only beat UNC because Greivis Vasquez decided to blow up and score 35 points. If he doesn't produce for the Terps, you can check one in the loss column.
VT - 17-11 (7-7) - The Hokies have split their last 12 games, going 6-6 including wins at Wake, at Miami, and at Clemson. Yes, they did get shafted in their game against Duke, but the fact of the matter is, they lost. Their out of conference play was disastrous. They lost to Xavier, Seton Hall, Wisconsin, and Georgia. While Tech is a very good team, they still have a tough road ahead of them consisting of a home game against UNC and their finale at FSU. I think they'll split these games and finish 18-11 (8-8). But don't be surprised it Tech surprises people and wins out the regular season.
Verdict: IN
It pains me to say it, but I think the Hokies make it in this year. They remember last year when they barely didn't make the tourney, and will play their best ball down the stretch. If they split their final 2 regular season games, they will have to win at least one game in the ACC tournament to get in. They are capable of doing just that.
Miami - 17-10 (6-8) - They are 5-7 in their last 12 games, but conclude the regular season against cellar dwellers GT and NC St. Look for the Canes to finish 19-10 (8-8). They beat Kentucky in out of conference play and suffered narrow losses to Ohio State and Connecticut. The Canes have swept BC, beaten Wake, Maryland, and FSU, and lost to Duke in O.T.
Verdict: IN
If they finish as projected, they will have won their final 4 games to conclude their ACC schedule with a .500 record. They will need a win in the ACC Tourney to lock up their spot, but with Jack McClinton, that is something they can manage.
The ACC gets 8 teams in to match the Big East.
Things are getting real interesting now in the ACC as teams are vying for spots in the big dance, and a first round bye in the ACC tournament. Florida State and Clemson are currently sitting at 4th and 5th, and the top 4 teams get a bye. Florida State meets Duke tonight in a huge game at Cameron. Clemson hosts Virginia tonight (no preview - sorry, UVA is gonna lose) in a game that is just as important, but more winnable. FSU will have to be rolling if they want to defeat Duke and hold on to their 4th place spot. Gotta love this time of year.
UNC - 25-3 (11-3)
Duke - 24-5 (10-4)
Wake - 22-5 (9-5)
FSU - 22-7 (9-5)
Clemson - 22-6 (8-6)
Most Likely:
BC - 20-9 (8-6) - They are 7-5 over their last 12 games with huge wins over Duke and Florida State. They also close out the season with a fairly easy two games against NC St and GT. The only reason I don't have them as for sure in, is that their out of conference play was not impressive and consisted of losses to Saint Louis and Harvard. However, they have been playing very well of late and should finish 22-9 (10-6).
Verdict: IN
If they finish as projected, they should have zero trouble getting in regardless of ACC Tournament play. Tyrese Rice is a baller and should guarantee at least one tourney win, locking them a spot in the dance.
Bubble Teams:
Maryland - 18-10 (7-7) - They are 6-6 in their last 12 games with a big time win over the Tarheels. However they must conclude the regular season with a home game against Wake (tonight at 9) and at Virginia. I'm feeling the Terps losing their final 2 games and falling to 18-12 (7-9). This would mean that they would have to do some serious work in the ACC tourney to make it in the field of 65, I'm talking make it to the finals. They did beat Michigan State during out of conference play, but also lost to Georgetown, Gonzaga, and MORGAN STATE!
Verdict: OUT
This team isn't very good and really only beat UNC because Greivis Vasquez decided to blow up and score 35 points. If he doesn't produce for the Terps, you can check one in the loss column.
VT - 17-11 (7-7) - The Hokies have split their last 12 games, going 6-6 including wins at Wake, at Miami, and at Clemson. Yes, they did get shafted in their game against Duke, but the fact of the matter is, they lost. Their out of conference play was disastrous. They lost to Xavier, Seton Hall, Wisconsin, and Georgia. While Tech is a very good team, they still have a tough road ahead of them consisting of a home game against UNC and their finale at FSU. I think they'll split these games and finish 18-11 (8-8). But don't be surprised it Tech surprises people and wins out the regular season.
Verdict: IN
It pains me to say it, but I think the Hokies make it in this year. They remember last year when they barely didn't make the tourney, and will play their best ball down the stretch. If they split their final 2 regular season games, they will have to win at least one game in the ACC tournament to get in. They are capable of doing just that.
Miami - 17-10 (6-8) - They are 5-7 in their last 12 games, but conclude the regular season against cellar dwellers GT and NC St. Look for the Canes to finish 19-10 (8-8). They beat Kentucky in out of conference play and suffered narrow losses to Ohio State and Connecticut. The Canes have swept BC, beaten Wake, Maryland, and FSU, and lost to Duke in O.T.
Verdict: IN
If they finish as projected, they will have won their final 4 games to conclude their ACC schedule with a .500 record. They will need a win in the ACC Tourney to lock up their spot, but with Jack McClinton, that is something they can manage.
The ACC gets 8 teams in to match the Big East.
Things are getting real interesting now in the ACC as teams are vying for spots in the big dance, and a first round bye in the ACC tournament. Florida State and Clemson are currently sitting at 4th and 5th, and the top 4 teams get a bye. Florida State meets Duke tonight in a huge game at Cameron. Clemson hosts Virginia tonight (no preview - sorry, UVA is gonna lose) in a game that is just as important, but more winnable. FSU will have to be rolling if they want to defeat Duke and hold on to their 4th place spot. Gotta love this time of year.
Monday, March 2, 2009
Big East Bubble Teams
Before I start with the bubble teams, some UVA news:
The #2 mens' lacrosse team defeated #1 Syracuse at the Carrier Dome by a score of 13-12. Shamel Bratton led the way for the Hoos with 4 goals and 1 assist. Garrett Billings and Danny Glading each added 3 goals. Faceoffs were the key in this game as UVA controlled 17, while 'Cuse only managed 12. The Hoos were up 13-7 and held off a late game rally by the Orange to win by one goal.
The Hoos dropped another winnable basketball game to Wake Forest, losing 70-60. Pretty much the same story as the Miami game. Respectable defense, terrible offense. Baker played solid defense again, but also turned the ball over 5 times...again. Virginia was never down by double digits until the end when they resorted to fouling. Oh well, can't expect much from a team that simply isn't good. That's all I'm gonna say about that because I'm tired of these performances.
The Big East.
For Sure:
UConn - 27-2 (15-2)
L'Ville - 23-5 (14-2)
Pitt - 26-3 (13-3)
Marquette - 23-6 (12-4)
'Nova - 23-6 (11-5)
Most Likely:
'Cuse - 21-8 (9-7), RPI = .6123 - In their last 12 games, they are 5-7 and have struggled against the Big East powers (0-5 against the top 5 with a game at Marquette still ahead). Their non-conference performance however was very strong with neutral site wins against Florida and Kansas, a win at Memphis, and a home win against Virginia (no small feat)! But all is not good as they did lose to Cleveland State. As long as they win their final home game against Rutgers, the Orange will be in good shape. They will probably lose at Marquette in their final regular season game and finish 23-8 (10-8), which should be good enough to get them in without any wins in the Big East tourney, although one wouldn't hurt.
Verdict: IN
WVU - 20-9 (9-7), RPI = .6154 -In their last 12 games, they are 7-5 including a big win over Nova. They are 1-5 against the top 5 teams in the Big East but conclude the regular season with a home game against Louiville. The Mountaineers weren't too impressive out of conference as their biggest win was a thumping of a very average Ohio State team. They also suffered neutral site losses to Kentucky and Davidson. They will probably conclude the season with a win over DePaul and a loss to Louisville and finish 21-10 (10-8). Like 'Cuse, they should get in regardless of the tourney if they finish as projected.
Verdict: IN
The Bubble Teams:
Providence - 18-11 (10-7), RPI = .5655 - They are 7-5 in their last 12 games with 2 huge wins over Pittsburgh and Syracuse. However they are still 1-4 against the Big East top 5 and must conclude the regular season at 'Nova. However, their out of conference schedule was a joke. They beat no respectable teams and lost to Northeastern and Baylor. The only legit teams they played were Boston College and Saint Mary's, and they lost both games.. They will most likely finish 18-12 (10-8) and will have to do work in the Big East tourney to get in.
Verdict: OUT.
Out of conference play matters, and this team didn't do their part before conference play. I don't see Providence winning more than one game in the Big East tourney, and I think they will need at least 2 to get in.
Cincy - 18-11 (8-8), RPI = .5816 - They are 7-5 in their last 12 games and could very easily finish the season with 2 more wins as they still have to play at South Florida and home against Seton Hall. This would put the Bearcats at 20-11 (10-8). This team played a very good out of conference schedule, however, they didn't fare too well against their opponents. Cincy beat respectable opponents in UAB, UNLV, and Miss St., but lost games against big time opponents in Xavier, Florida St, and Memphis. What will hurt them is that they are 0-5 against the top 5 Big East teams, but they have swept Georgetown and beaten both Notre Dame and W.Va.
Verdict: IN.
If they finish as projected, and win at least 1 game in the Big East tourney, look for the Bearcats to make it into the field of 65.
N.D. - 16-12 (7-9), RPI = .5654 - They are a woeful 4-8 in their last 12 games and still have to play Villanova. The Irish will probably finish 17-13 (8-10). They are 1-5 against the Big East top 5 with a fluke 90-57 win over Louisville. They have only won 2 Big East road games against lowly DePaul and Providence. They played a very good out of conference schedule against the likes of Texas, UNC, Ohio St, and UCLA, but only have a one point win over Texas to show for it.
Verdict: OUT.
If they finish as projected, they will have to win AT LEAST 2 games in the Big East tourney to even be considered. This team disappointed big time this season and will have to settle for the NIT.
G'Town - 15-12 (6-10), RPI = .5943 - The Hoyas started the season very strong with wins over Maryland, Memphis, and even UConn. They were 12-3 (3-2) when they travelled to Cameron on January 17 to face Duke. The Hoyas lost 76-67 and then the shit hit the fan. Their next 11 games resulted in 3 wins and 8 losses. They will probably finish 17-12 (8-10) with wins over St. Johns and DePaul, but that by no means even comes close to guaranteeing them a spot in the dance. Their out of conference play was impressive as they only lost to Duke and Tennessee. They have played a very hard schedule but have not performed as expected.
Verdict: OUT.
Like Notre Dame, Georgetown will have to do serious work in the Big East Tournament if they want to make it into the field of 65. Don't count them out however, as Georgetown is very capable of rolling off some wins.
There you have it. The Big East gets 8 teams into the field of 65. UConn, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, and Cincinnati. If I had to choose a 9th team, I would select Georgetown, because I feel they are good enough to make a run in the Big East tourney and sway the voters to put them in the field.
UP NEXT...ACC Bubble Teams.
The #2 mens' lacrosse team defeated #1 Syracuse at the Carrier Dome by a score of 13-12. Shamel Bratton led the way for the Hoos with 4 goals and 1 assist. Garrett Billings and Danny Glading each added 3 goals. Faceoffs were the key in this game as UVA controlled 17, while 'Cuse only managed 12. The Hoos were up 13-7 and held off a late game rally by the Orange to win by one goal.
The Hoos dropped another winnable basketball game to Wake Forest, losing 70-60. Pretty much the same story as the Miami game. Respectable defense, terrible offense. Baker played solid defense again, but also turned the ball over 5 times...again. Virginia was never down by double digits until the end when they resorted to fouling. Oh well, can't expect much from a team that simply isn't good. That's all I'm gonna say about that because I'm tired of these performances.
The Big East.
For Sure:
UConn - 27-2 (15-2)
L'Ville - 23-5 (14-2)
Pitt - 26-3 (13-3)
Marquette - 23-6 (12-4)
'Nova - 23-6 (11-5)
Most Likely:
'Cuse - 21-8 (9-7), RPI = .6123 - In their last 12 games, they are 5-7 and have struggled against the Big East powers (0-5 against the top 5 with a game at Marquette still ahead). Their non-conference performance however was very strong with neutral site wins against Florida and Kansas, a win at Memphis, and a home win against Virginia (no small feat)! But all is not good as they did lose to Cleveland State. As long as they win their final home game against Rutgers, the Orange will be in good shape. They will probably lose at Marquette in their final regular season game and finish 23-8 (10-8), which should be good enough to get them in without any wins in the Big East tourney, although one wouldn't hurt.
Verdict: IN
WVU - 20-9 (9-7), RPI = .6154 -In their last 12 games, they are 7-5 including a big win over Nova. They are 1-5 against the top 5 teams in the Big East but conclude the regular season with a home game against Louiville. The Mountaineers weren't too impressive out of conference as their biggest win was a thumping of a very average Ohio State team. They also suffered neutral site losses to Kentucky and Davidson. They will probably conclude the season with a win over DePaul and a loss to Louisville and finish 21-10 (10-8). Like 'Cuse, they should get in regardless of the tourney if they finish as projected.
Verdict: IN
The Bubble Teams:
Providence - 18-11 (10-7), RPI = .5655 - They are 7-5 in their last 12 games with 2 huge wins over Pittsburgh and Syracuse. However they are still 1-4 against the Big East top 5 and must conclude the regular season at 'Nova. However, their out of conference schedule was a joke. They beat no respectable teams and lost to Northeastern and Baylor. The only legit teams they played were Boston College and Saint Mary's, and they lost both games.. They will most likely finish 18-12 (10-8) and will have to do work in the Big East tourney to get in.
Verdict: OUT.
Out of conference play matters, and this team didn't do their part before conference play. I don't see Providence winning more than one game in the Big East tourney, and I think they will need at least 2 to get in.
Cincy - 18-11 (8-8), RPI = .5816 - They are 7-5 in their last 12 games and could very easily finish the season with 2 more wins as they still have to play at South Florida and home against Seton Hall. This would put the Bearcats at 20-11 (10-8). This team played a very good out of conference schedule, however, they didn't fare too well against their opponents. Cincy beat respectable opponents in UAB, UNLV, and Miss St., but lost games against big time opponents in Xavier, Florida St, and Memphis. What will hurt them is that they are 0-5 against the top 5 Big East teams, but they have swept Georgetown and beaten both Notre Dame and W.Va.
Verdict: IN.
If they finish as projected, and win at least 1 game in the Big East tourney, look for the Bearcats to make it into the field of 65.
N.D. - 16-12 (7-9), RPI = .5654 - They are a woeful 4-8 in their last 12 games and still have to play Villanova. The Irish will probably finish 17-13 (8-10). They are 1-5 against the Big East top 5 with a fluke 90-57 win over Louisville. They have only won 2 Big East road games against lowly DePaul and Providence. They played a very good out of conference schedule against the likes of Texas, UNC, Ohio St, and UCLA, but only have a one point win over Texas to show for it.
Verdict: OUT.
If they finish as projected, they will have to win AT LEAST 2 games in the Big East tourney to even be considered. This team disappointed big time this season and will have to settle for the NIT.
G'Town - 15-12 (6-10), RPI = .5943 - The Hoyas started the season very strong with wins over Maryland, Memphis, and even UConn. They were 12-3 (3-2) when they travelled to Cameron on January 17 to face Duke. The Hoyas lost 76-67 and then the shit hit the fan. Their next 11 games resulted in 3 wins and 8 losses. They will probably finish 17-12 (8-10) with wins over St. Johns and DePaul, but that by no means even comes close to guaranteeing them a spot in the dance. Their out of conference play was impressive as they only lost to Duke and Tennessee. They have played a very hard schedule but have not performed as expected.
Verdict: OUT.
Like Notre Dame, Georgetown will have to do serious work in the Big East Tournament if they want to make it into the field of 65. Don't count them out however, as Georgetown is very capable of rolling off some wins.
There you have it. The Big East gets 8 teams into the field of 65. UConn, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, and Cincinnati. If I had to choose a 9th team, I would select Georgetown, because I feel they are good enough to make a run in the Big East tourney and sway the voters to put them in the field.
UP NEXT...ACC Bubble Teams.
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