The Clemson Game

The Hoos take on Clemson on Sunday at 1:00 at JPJ. Clemson is tied for 3rd place in the ACC with a 6-3 conference record and a 20-3 overall record to go along with their #11 National Ranking. UVA meanwhile, is in second to last place (11th) in the conference with a 1-8 record and a 7-13 overall record. Virginia is still looking for its first home conference win, and with Sean Singletary in attendance to have his number retired, this would be the most fitting time for it.

Clemson is coming into this game rolling, after winning 4 of its last 5 games. The most notable of these wins is of course a 74-47 stomping of Duke. The Hoos could not be in worse shape entering this game, as it has been an eternity since their last win. They have dropped their last 8 games, and haven't won since January 6 against Brown.

To make things worse, Virginia has shown little improvement since the beginning of the season. Connecting on open jumpers has presented a challenge all season long, and the defense has only recently shown signs of effort. Leitao has yet to find an effective line-up, as he has essentially changed the starting 5 every game. In the most recent game against the Seminoles, Leitao went with Baker, Tat, Jones, Landesberg, and Sene. While this lineup is a major improvement defensively, it is an offensive liablity. Tat (0.8 PPG) is known exclusively for his defense, and Sene (3.1 PPG) is still developing his post moves. This leaves the Hoos with 3 scorers on the court. Landesberg (17.8 PPG) is the only player on the roster to put up points night in and night out. Jones has shown flashes of his high school glory days (at UNC: 7-12 FGM-A), and then the next night miss just about everything (at FSU: 3-11 FGM-A). Baker (7.7 PPG) has improved significantly since the beginning of the season. He has greatly improved his decision making and shot selection, but he is just not an ACC caliber point guard.

The remaining players on the bench are not exactly a viable option either. Mike Scott has recently fallen off the map after a great start to the season. In the last 5 games, Scott has averaged a mere 5.8 pts and 3.8 boards in 24 min/game. Mustapha Farrakhan, known for his shooting, has had 2 good games all season (at GT - 12 pts, at VT - 17 pts). Jamil Tucker, after lighting Maryland up with 21 points, has averaged 5 points in the last 5 games. Sammy Zeglinski, who performed very well in pre-conference play, has managed to score in double figures only once in conference play. And Diane, well, he's struggling. Long story short, regardless of who Leitao puts on the court, this team struggles to put up points.

Let's compare some major team statistics to see how the Cavs and Tigers matchup:

Category - - - - - - - - - - -Virginia - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Clemson
Scoring Offense - - - - - - - - - 72.3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 78.5
Scoring Defense - - - - - - - - - 73.7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 65.3
FG % - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 41.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 46.3
FG % Defense - - - - - - - - - - 43.6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -41.3
3 pt % - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 29.8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -37.2
3 pt % Defense - - - - - - - - - 34.3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 33.3
FT % - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 74.9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -67.9
Rebound Margin - - - - - - (+)2.3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (+)1.7
TO Margin - - - - - - - - - - -(-)0.5 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -(+)4

The Tigers also have some serious playmakers on their team, which cause some major match up problems for the Hoos. Trevor Booker is almost averaging a double-double/game with 15.1 pts and 9 boards. At 6'7" 240, he will most likely be defended by Mike Scott (if he gets the start) who weighs in at 6'8" 233. While there does not seem to be a size disadvantage in this matchup, Scott tends to get pushed around by the ACC big men and does not use his size well. However, the Hoos recent switch to the zone D might help neutralize Booker's interior presence. If UVA is successful in cutting down on Clemson's points in the paint, they will have their hands full with Terrence Oglesby and K.C. Rivers. Look for K.C. Rivers to have a field day against UVA's zone. He is averaging 14.3 PPG and is shooting 45% from the field and 38% from 3 point land. He also has the ability to take over games as shown against VT (29 pts) and Miami (28 pts). Oglesby will be the x-factor in this game. He's shooting 41% from 3 this year and is averaging 13.4 PPG. If he's able to connect on his shots, then the Hoos don't have a prayer. If he's having an off night (as he did in the loss to FSU with 5 points), then there might be a chance for the home crowd to witness the first ACC home win of the season.

All that being said, Clemson is not a deep team. They almost exclusively rely on 3 players to score their points. If Leitao can somehow manage to get Booker in foul trouble using our many available options of mediocre big men, then this game could get interesting. Unfortunately, I think that Oglesby and Rivers will both have big shooting nights as they will find many open shots against our slowly rotating zone. So how do we win this game? We have to look inside and CAN NOT throw up 20 3's. We will also need quick ball movement and smart decision making to beat the Clemson press. This means not inbounding the ball in the corner. Another thing that might help would be actually running an offense, but that is a story for another day. Also, someone besides Sylven needs to produce. As mentioned before, this tends to be a problem. I'm looking at Baker scoring double figures if guarded by Oglesby. Oglesby is not known for his defense and Baker has his moments. Watch out for Jeff Jones as well, sometimes his shots don't fall, but this guy is very talented and knows how to score. After that, I'm not sure, maybe Jamil will get some more playing time and get back in double figures. Hopefully this will be the night when the shots fall for the Hoos. Maybe our guys will give an inspired effort for the entire 40 minutes and get another tally for the W column. If Notre Dame can end a 7 game losing streak against Louisville, then the Hoos can end an 8 game skid against Clemson.

Optimistic Prediction: 72-67 Hoos
Realistic Prediction: 79-63 Tigers